SKU:
Run:
Actual + Forecast
History: Jan 2023 - Dec 2024 | Forecast: Jan - Jun 2025 (LightGBM + Seasonal v2.5.0)
Confidence
Medium
Based on 24 months of training data
Model: LightGBM + Seasonal
WAPE: 6.8% on validation set
Risk Months
Mar 2534% range
Feb 2533% range
Apr 2532% range
Months with widest P10-P90 interval relative to forecast
Forecast Table
| Month | Forecast | P10 | P90 | Plan | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25 | 26,600 | 22,129 | 30,477 | 27,366 | -766 |
| Feb 25 | 27,200 | 22,225 | 31,326 | 26,158 | +1,042 |
| Mar 25 | 29,183 | 24,187 | 33,989 | 29,170 | +13 |
| Apr 25 | 32,722 | 27,187 | 37,562 | 32,745 | -23 |
| May 25 | 36,291 | 30,343 | 41,677 | 35,460 | +831 |
| Jun 25 | 38,340 | 31,570 | 43,235 | 38,624 | -284 |